Global ETF Trend Scanner

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How this works: Every ETF is tested against 5 independent checks drawn from academic research. When 4+ checks turn green, the evidence says this is a genuine, tradeable trend. Hover over any check to see the research behind it.

Long-term trend

Is the price above its 10-month moving average?

Faber (2006)

Trend strength

Is the trend strong enough to be real, not just noise?

Wilder ADX ≥ 25

Direction

Are buyers stronger than sellers right now?

Wilder +DI vs −DI

Momentum

Is this ETF outperforming most others over 2–12 months?

Jegadeesh & Titman (1993)

Trend quality

Is the price path smooth and steady, or choppy?

R² of log-price fit

Entry Zone 5/5 checks

Near Entry 4/5

Watchlist 3/5

These ETFs were previously trending but are now breaking down. If you hold any of these, review the signals below and consider reducing or exiting. Severity is ranked from most urgent to least.

Class:

Regime:

Ticker	Name	Class	Price	Score	Regime	SMA	10M Avg	ADX	Dir	R²	Quality

Returns over different time horizons. The “Momentum Score” is the average of 2M through 12M returns (skipping the most recent month, which tends to reverse). Green = outperforming, red = underperforming. Click any ticker for a chart.

Class:

Ticker	Name	Class	Price	2 Month	3 Month	6 Month	12 Month	Avg Return (excl. 1M)	Trend Score	Regime

All 5 checks for every ETF at a glance. GO = 4-5 checks pass (high conviction). LEAN = 3 (forming). WATCH = 2. AVOID = 0-1.

Ticker	Name	Long-term trend	Trend strength	Direction	Momentum	Trend quality	Score	Verdict

▲ Top 10 Trending

▼ Bottom 10 — Avoid

5 Methodology & How to Use▼

Layer A - Direction

Faber 10-Month SMA

What it does: Compares today’s price to the average closing price over the past 10 months. If price is above that average, the long-term direction is up.

Why it matters: Meb Faber (2006) showed that this one rule alone avoids the worst drawdowns in major bear markets. It’s the simplest, most battle-tested trend filter in finance — used by pension funds and endowments worldwide.

Data used: Monthly closing prices, 10-period simple moving average.

Price > SMA(10M) = LONG (uptrend)
Price < SMA(10M) = CASH (defensive)

Layer B - Strength & Direction

Wilder’s ADX / DI System

What it does: Three indicators working together, all invented by J. Welles Wilder (1978):

ADX (Average Directional Index): Measures how strong a trend is, regardless of whether it’s up or down. Calculated from 14 days of price data (high, low, close). ADX below 25 = the market is just chopping sideways with no real trend. Above 25 = a genuine trend exists. Above 40 = a powerful trend.

+DI (Positive Directional Indicator): Measures upward price pressure — how much today’s high exceeds yesterday’s high, smoothed over 14 days.

-DI (Negative Directional Indicator): Measures downward price pressure — how much today’s low undercuts yesterday’s low, smoothed over 14 days.

Why it matters: When +DI > -DI, buyers are in control. When -DI > +DI, sellers dominate. Combined with ADX, this tells you both is there a trend and which direction.

Data used: Daily high/low/close, 14-period Wilder smoothing, 3 months of history.

ADX > 25 = Trending (real move)
ADX > 40 = Strong trend
ADX < 20 = No trend (avoid)
+DI > -DI = Buyers in control
-DI > +DI = Sellers in control

Layer C - Magnitude

12-Minus-1 Momentum

What it does: Measures how much an ETF has gained or lost over the past 2, 3, 6, and 12 months, then averages those returns — but deliberately skips the most recent month.

Why skip 1 month? Jegadeesh & Titman (1993) discovered that assets which went up over 2–12 months tend to keep going up (momentum effect), but the most recent month tends to reverse. Skipping it removes that noise. This is the academic standard used in most factor research.

How we use it: We rank every ETF in the universe by this score. If an ETF is in the top third, its momentum is “strong.” Being in the top third means it’s outpacing ~37 of the 57 ETFs we track.

Data used: Monthly closing prices, 2-year lookback.

Score = average(2M%, 3M%, 6M%, 12M%)
Skips most recent 1M (reversal)
Top 33% of universe = Strong
Bottom 33% = Weak / Lagging

Layer D - Quality

Trend Smoothness (R²)

What it does: Fits a straight line through the last 12 months of log-prices and measures how closely price has followed that line. R² ranges from 0 (completely random) to 1 (perfectly straight).

Why it matters: Two ETFs can both be “up 20%” over a year, but one rose steadily while the other whipsawed violently. The smooth one is far easier to trade — stops don’t get triggered, entries are cleaner, and the ride is less stressful. High R² means the trend is “clean.”

What the numbers mean: R² ≥ 0.7 = smooth, steady trend (the dream for trend followers). R² 0.3–0.7 = trend exists but choppy. R² < 0.3 = price is essentially random; no amount of trend following will help.

Data used: 12 monthly closing prices, OLS regression of ln(price) vs time.

R² ≥ 0.7 = Smooth, rideable trend
R² 0.3-0.7 = Trend but bumpy
R² < 0.3 = Random/choppy (avoid)
Lookback: 12 months (monthly data)

How the 4 Layers Combine into 2 Outputs

Output 1: Signal Alignment (5 binary checks)

Each ETF gets 5 yes/no checks. More “yes” answers = more evidence the trend is real:

1. Long-term trend: Price above 10-month SMA? (Layer A)
2. Trend strength: ADX ≥ 25? (Layer B)
3. Direction: +DI > -DI? Buyers in control? (Layer B)
4. Momentum: In the top third of all ETFs? (Layer C)
5. Trend quality: R² ≥ 0.6? Smooth enough to trade? (Layer D)

GO (4-5/5) High conviction — multiple independent signals confirm the trend.
LEAN (3/5) Trend forming — watch closely, may be early.
WATCH (2/5) Mixed signals — not enough evidence to act.
AVOID (0-1/5) No trend or downtrend.

Why 5 independent checks? Any single indicator can give false signals. When 4 or 5 different measures all agree, the probability of a false signal drops dramatically. It’s the same principle as medical diagnosis: one symptom is ambiguous, but five symptoms pointing to the same condition is convincing.

Output 2: Composite Score (0–100)

Step 1: Score each layer 0-100
A SMA direction: 100 if above, 0 if below
B ADX strength: scaled from 10-50 to 0-100
C Momentum: percentile rank vs all ETFs
D Trend quality: R² × 100

Step 2: Equal-weight average
Raw = 0.25×A + 0.25×B + 0.25×C + 0.25×D

Step 3: Direction adjustment
If +DI > -DI (buyers in control): keep full score
If -DI > +DI (sellers in control): multiply by 0.3

This penalises ETFs where the trend looks OK on paper but sellers are actually dominating day-to-day.

How to interpret the score

70+: Strong uptrend with conviction — consider entry.
50–70: Moderate trend — may be early or fading.
30–50: Weak or transitional — no clear edge.
<30: Downtrend or no trend — avoid or consider exiting.

Trade Setup Guide

● Finding Setups (What to Trade)

Start with GO or LEAN verdicts (Section 1). These are ETFs where 3+ independent signals agree.

Prefer high R² (≥0.7). Smooth trends are more forgiving on entry timing. A choppy trend can be right but still stop you out.

Confirm direction: +DI > -DI (buyers in control) AND ADX ≥ 25 (trend is real). ADX rising above 25 is the ideal moment — the trend is just gaining conviction.

Look for macro themes. If commodities, EM equities, and FX all show bullish signals, there’s a structural force driving multiple markets. That’s higher conviction than a single ETF.

● Entry & Execution (When to Trade)

The scanner tells you what to trade. The daily chart tells you when. Click any ticker to open a TradingView chart with the indicators pre-loaded.

Daily chart entry checklist:
1 Price above 50-day EMA (long-term support)
2 Price above 21-day EMA (medium-term direction)
3 SuperTrend indicator is green/bullish
4 Price pulls back near 8-day EMA = entry zone
5 Daily ADX rising or ≥ 25

Position sizing: Risk 1–2% of portfolio per trade. If only 4/5 checks pass, use 75% of normal size.

Stop loss: Below the SuperTrend line (auto-adjusts to volatility) or below the most recent swing low.

When to exit:
• SuperTrend flips red on daily → tighten stop or exit
• Price closes below 21-day EMA → reduce position
• Monthly SMA signal flips to BELOW → full exit
• ADX drops below 20 → trend is dying, take profits

Entry point discipline: Deploy capital after flat or pullback periods, not after strong runs. Research (Clare et al. 2016) shows that buying momentum strategies after they’ve already surged leads to worse outcomes. Wait for the dip within the trend.

Important Limitations

This is not investment advice. This scanner is a screening tool based on systematic rules. It identifies where trends exist — it cannot predict the future.

Data frequency: The scanner uses monthly data for SMA and momentum (2-year lookback) and daily data for ADX/DI (3-month lookback). It updates once daily after US market close. Intraday moves are not captured.

Survivorship note: The 57 ETFs in this universe were selected for liquidity and asset class coverage. They are not an exhaustive list, and past inclusion does not guarantee future relevance.

Trend following works — until it doesn’t. These methods perform well in trending markets but can generate whipsaws (false signals) in choppy, range-bound environments. The R² filter helps, but no filter eliminates all false signals. Always use stop losses.

Notes

Data: Pre-computed daily via GitHub Actions (Node.js → Yahoo Finance server-side). Auto-refreshes ~14:00 SGT.
Momentum 12-1: 2M/3M/6M/12M, excluding 1M. ADX: Wilder 14-period. R²: OLS ln(close) vs time.
Composite: 25% per layer, direction-adjusted. See Methodology section.